Government worried about the lack of rain

The Army Corps of Engineers is getting worried about the lack of rainfall.  Since December the basin has experienced below average rainfall every month (a 7-inch deficit between Hartwell and Thurmond through April).  Reservoir levels remained favorable due to the 2015 year-end precipitation. Although rainfall since January has only been 64 percent of normal, inflows have remained near normal due to the saturated soil and higher runoff rates.   The corps’ Russell Wicke says, “Due to rainfall deficits this spring we are beginning to see indicators the soil is no longer saturated, and inflows are beginning to match the reduced level of rainfall we’ve observed over the last four months.  As the ground becomes dry, inflows (and therefore reservoir levels) will be less responsive to rainfall. The ground and vegetation get the first share of rainfall.” The Drought Monitor is indicating most of the upper basin is currently in moderate drought, despite the reservoirs being nearly full. (NOAA uses a variety of condition indicators to determine drought. The Corps primarily uses reservoir levels as an aid in making operational decisions.) What does all this mean for reservoirs levels in the near future?  Wicke says, “We’re not in the business of forecasting weather, so we’ll leave it to the imagination of the reader to determine what conditions may be like by the end of summer if rainfall trends from the last four months continue throughout the summer.”