Clemson researcher co-creator of Lyme disease forecast map

As the rate of Lyme disease grows rapidly across the United States, new research offers veterinarians a forecasting map that tells them which parts of the country are most at risk of Lyme disease infections in dogs, which could also help track and predict Lyme disease in people. Monthly data from veterinarians across the country feed into a new Lyme disease forecast map. Data show the prevalence of the disease and the increased territory of the ticks that spread the disease. The forecast map, created by Christopher McMahan, an assistant professor of mathematical sciences at Clemson University, and Michael Yabsley, a parasitologist at the University of Georgia, shows the predicted Lyme disease prevalence — the percentage of dogs who are likely to test positive — in each of the 48 contiguous states. It draws on monthly test data from veterinarians, providing the most timely picture of Lyme disease cases available. Ticks that carry the disease-causing bacterium, Borrelia burgdorferi, were once thought to be limited to northern parts of the United States, but recent research shows they are now in half of the counties across the country, including Southern states. Ticks that carry the disease-causing bacterium, Borrelia burgdorferi, were once thought to be limited to northern parts of the United States, but recent research shows they are now in half of the counties across the country, including Southern states. Yabsley and McMahan combined factors associated with Lyme disease — forestation, surface water area, temperature, population density and median household income — with nearly 12 million B. burgdorferi antibody test results collected between 2011 and 2015 in dogs, by county, in the contiguous United States, provided by the veterinary diagnostic company IDEXX Laboratories Inc. The research is “a call to action for people to protect their dogs and for veterinarians to engage in conversations with their clients about risks to their pets and options for prevention, including vaccination and tick preventatives,” said I. Craig Prior, a veterinarian at the VCA Murphy Road Animal Hospital in Nashville, Tennessee, and president of the Companion Animal Parasite Council (CAPC) board of directors.